Statistically? Almost nobody succeeds at timing markets. Data spanning 21 years (January 2000-2021) reveals investors buying Nifty 50 at all-time highs earned 10.8% annualized returns; adding dividends pushed this to 12.3%. The fear that “all-time highs” guarantee crashes didn’t materialize.
Missing Just 10 Best Days Destroys Wealth
Missing only 10 best trading days (out of 7,000+ days) reduces returns from 10% annually to 4%. Identifying which 10 days in advance? Impossible for retail traders.
The Cost of Waiting
Waiting for 10% market drops often never arrives. The March 2020 crash showed only 50% of corrections occur within 1-2 years. Meanwhile, investors waiting missed 33-60% average gains; some missed 475% returns entirely.
Real Numbers
SEBI data: Nifty touches new all-time highs once every 5 months (55 times in 252 months). Investors selling during “peaks” repeatedly miss subsequent gains.
Why Timing Fails
- Emotional decisions: Fear triggers selling at bottoms; greed drives buying at tops
- Transaction costs: Frequent trading eats 15-20% gains
- Taxes: Short-term gains taxed at 15-20% vs 10% long-term
- Perfect timing impossible: Buffett exited markets 1969, re-entered 1974—5 years missing gains
What Actually Works
₹10,000 monthly SIP regardless of market level consistently outperforms active timing attempts. Nifty 50 delivered 13.6% CAGR despite volatility.
Stock market courses in Delhi teach why buy-and-hold discipline beats market timing—consistent gains beat perfect predictions.
